北大经院工作坊第812场
the dynamic efficiency of policy uncertainty: evidence from the wind industry
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：luming chen（ph.d. candidate at the university of wisconsin-madison）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2024年2月28日（周三）10:00-11:00
形式：zoom会议
会议号：851 3452 1165
主讲人简介：
luming chen is a ph.d. candidate in the department of economics at the university of wisconsin-madison. his research fields are empirical industrial organization, environmental and energy economics, and productivity. he will graduate in june 2024 and on the job market this year.
摘要：
this paper investigates the dynamic efficiency of policy uncertainty in the us wind energy industry. policy expiration embedded in the production tax credit induced uncertainty among wind farm investors and expedited investment. l compile a comprehensive data set of the investment, production, and long-term contracts on the us wind energy market. l find significant bunching in the number of new wind farms at the expiration dates of the short policy windows and a large mismatch among wind farm investment timing, continuously improving upstream turbine technology, and evolving demand for wind energy. i then develop an empirical model featuring the bilateral bargaining of long-term contracts, endogenous buyer matching, and dynamic wind farm investment under policy uncertainty. model estimates reveal that a lapse in policy extension reduced the perceived likelihood of policy renewal to 30%, and counterfactual simulations demonstrate that removing policy uncertainty postpones the entry of 53% of the affected cohort by 3.5 years. removing policy uncertainty increases the net social surplus by 5.9 billion dollars and could save fiscal expenditure without sacrificing social welfare.
北大经院工作坊第813场
博士生专场
经济史工作坊
主讲人：李嫣然、汪欢颜（北京大学经济学院博士生）
时间：2024年2月29日（周四）12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院303会议室
【一】
个人简介：李嫣然，北京大学经济学院经济史专业2021级博士生
题目：divided loyalty: japanese staff in the chinese maritime customs service, 1931-1944
摘要：
in this paper, we focus on japanese employees in the chinese maritime customs service during the period from 1931 to 1944. although cmcs took ‘cosmopolitan collaboration’ as principal, it was hard for japanese employees in the service to be unaffected by changes in political situation. we digitize service lists of selected years during the period 1931 to 1944, and build a panel dataset covering nearly 6,000 customs staffs from 28 different countries. based on the data, we find that japanese employees were faced with special promotion, transfer and dismissal at different stages of war, which showed the complicated situation of japanese staff during sino-japanese war.
【二】
个人简介：汪欢颜，北京大学经济学院经济史专业2021级博士生题目：
the origins of the establishment of chinese chambers of commerce
摘要：
chinese chambers of commerce were important mercantile organizations in late qing and republican china. they went beyond self-regulation and interest protection, and acted as semi-official institutions providing market order which the weak state could not afford at the time. despite wide scholarly interest, their origins remain controversial and quantitative study is scarce. this study joins in this historical debate with new empirical evidence. using member lists from 32 chambers nationwide and the agricultural and commercial statistical table of the republic of china, we discover a correlation between the establishment of local chambers and traditional banks, qianzhuang. but we do not find similar relationship with piaohao, another form of traditional financial organization. concrete causal inference requires further study.
北大经院工作坊第814场
风电项目对景观价值的影响
to see or not to see: the visual (dis)amenity value of wind turbines
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：wei guo（post-doc scholar at cmcc and eiee）
时间：2024年3月1日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点： 北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园249教室
主讲人简介：
wei guo is a post-doc scholar at euro-mediterranean center on climate change (cmcc) and rff-cmcc european institute on economics and the environment (eiee). her research is situated at the intersection of climate and environmental economics with urban economics, with a focus on climate adaptation, climate hazards, renewable energy, and digital innovation. she obtained her phd in agriculture and resource economics from uc berkeley in 2023.
摘要：
renewable power generation is the key to decarbonizing the electricity system. wind power is the fastest growing renewable source of electricity in the united states. however, expanding wind capacity often faces local opposition, partly due to a perceived visual disamenity from large wind turbines. here, we provide a first-of-its-kind us-wide assessment of the externality costs of wind power generation through the visibility impact on property values. to this end, we create a database on wind turbine visibility, combining information on the site and height of each utility-scale turbine having fed power into the u.s. grid, with a high-resolution elevation map to account for the underlying topography of the landscape. building on hedonic valuation theory, we statistically estimate the impact of wind turbine visibility on home values, informed by data from the majority of home sales in the u.s. since 1997. we find that on average wind turbine visibility negatively affects home values in an economically and statistically significant way in close proximity (<5 miles/8 km). however, the effect is indistinguishable from zero for larger distances, substantially smaller for wind turbines that were installed more recently, and diminishes significantly over time following the installation of turbines.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田