北大经院工作坊第857场
prison norms and society beyond bars
经济史工作坊
主讲人：michael poyker（fellow at the university of texas at austin）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠、mark hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
时间：2024年4月18日（周四）11：00-13：00（北京时间）
形式：zoom会议
会议号：979 0891 5419
主讲人简介：
michael poyker is a fellow at the lbj school of public affairs at ut austin. before joining the lbj school, he was an assistant professor of economics at the school of economics, university of nottingham. he received his ph.d. in management from the university of california, los angeles, anderson school of management in 2018, and worked as a post-doctoral fellow at columbia business school from 2018 to 2020. poyker earned an m.a. in economics from the new economic school and b.a. and m.a. in oriental and african studies from the moscow state university. his research interests focus primarily on gender, cultural norms, discrimination, and social justice. his research areas are applied micro/labor, political economy, and development.
摘要：
inmates’ informal code often ascribes low status to persons perceived as passive homosexuals. we investigate whether prisons contribute to homophobia in the general population using an exogenous shock of the soviet amnesty of 1953, which released 1.2 million prisoners. we document the spread of prison norms in localities exposed to the released ex-prisoners. in the long run, we find effects on anti-lgbtq hate crimes, homophobic slurs on social media, and discriminatory attitudes.
北大经院工作坊第858场
natural selection of artificial intelligence
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：balazs szentes（hku business school, chair of economics）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2024年4月18日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
professor szentes received his phd from boston university in 2002. he was an assistant professor at the university of chicago, where he got tenure in 2008. he was a professor at the university college london between 2008 and 2010 and at the london school of economics between 2010 and 2023. his main research interests are microeconomics and game theory.
摘要：
we study the ai control problem in the context of decentralized economic production. profit-maximizing firms employ artificial intelligence to automate aspects of production. this creates a feedback loop whereby ai is instrumental in the production and promotion of ai itself. just as with natural selection of organic species this introduces a new threat whereby machines programmed to distort production in favor of machines can displace those machines aligned with efficient production. we examine the extent to which competitive market forces can serve their traditional efficiency-aligning role in the face of this new threat. our analysis highlights the crucial role of ai transparency. when ai systems lack perfect transparency self-promoting machines destablize any efficient allocation. the only stable competitive equilibrium distorts consumption down to catastrophic levels.
北大经院工作坊第859场
ai多智能体系统在电商垂域的探索与创新
数字经济工作坊
主讲人：韩艾（中国科学院与美国康奈尔大学联合培养博士）
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
时间：2024年4月18日（周四）13:30-14:50
地点：北京大学经济学院403会议室
主讲人简介：
韩艾，中国科学院与美国康奈尔大学联合培养博士，北京大学双学士，北京大学经济学院2002级本科。现任京东集团算法总监，京东零售数据与算法通道委员，ccf大赛专家委员会专家、京东赛题全球发布人。兼任中国科学院大学硕士企业导师、北京工业大学硕士企业导师、西安电子科技大学客座教授。在国际顶级期刊发表学术论文数十篇，原创算法模型interval models至今被计算智能与经济领域引用近300次。
摘要:
京东零售基于multi-agents理念搭建的商家助手大模型在线推理服务架构，打通数据系统、算法系统和业务系统，不仅能够帮助商家快速了解平台规则、优化经营策略，还能通过自然语言交互提供个性化、多轮次的即时沟通服务，以及端到端的tools调用执行服务。这一系统的核心是算法层基于react范式定制多个llm ai agents，每个agent都有专门业务角色和服务功能，可以调用不同的工具或多agent协同工作来解决相应的问题。
北大经院工作坊第860场
uniform inference for high-frequency data
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：qiyuan li（singapore management university）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、王法、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2024年4月19日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
dr qiyuan li is interested in the fields of econometric theory, with a specialization in financial econometrics. he has published papers in journal of econometrics, oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, and quantitative economics.
摘要：
we address the uniform inference problem for high-frequency data that includes prices, volumes, and trading flows. such data is modeled with a general state-space framework, where latent state process is the corresponding risk indicators, e.g., volatility, price jump, average order size, and arrival of events. the functional estimators are formed as the collection of localized estimates across different time points. although the proposed estimators do not admit a functional central limit theorem, a gaussian strong approximation, or coupling, is established under in-fill asymptotics to facilitate feasible inference. we apply the proposed methodology to distinguish the informative part from the federal open market committee speeches, and to analyze the impact of social media activities on cryptocurrency markets.
北大经院工作坊第861场
hybrid contracts, multitasking, and incentives: theory and evidence from china's air pollution controls
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：曹光宇（北京大学经济学院财政学系助理教授）
时间：2024年4月19日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园249教室
主讲人简介：
曹光宇，北京大学经济学院财政学系助理教授。北京大学经济学学士、博士，普林斯顿大学当代中国研究中心（center on contemporary china, princeton university）博士后研究员。其主要研究领域为数字经济和公共经济学，研究成果发表于《经济研究》和rand journal of economics、journal of public economics等国内外期刊，主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目等课题。
摘要：
this paper examines how local chinese officials respond to hybrid incentive contracts combining minimum standards for air pollution controls and high-powered incentives for economic growth. using a novel prefecture-day level dataset on air quality and applying a regression discontinuity design, we find strong evidence that air quality tends to improve when the air quality target is doomed to fail but deteriorates significantly after the early fulfillment of the target is guaranteed. for those cities facing a higher pressure of local economic development, the improvement after doomed failure will be weakened while the deterioration after early fulfillment will be aggravated. we build a simple theoretical model to rationalize these key findings and further take officials' intrinsic motivations and political incentives into consideration. our study sheds light on how hybrid contracts function in a multitasking context.
北大经院工作坊第862场
国际收支统计原理与实践
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：韩健（国家外汇管理局国际收支司副司长）
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2024年4月19日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园246教室
主讲人简介：
韩健，国家外汇管理局国际收支司副司长，长期从事国际收支统计和监测工作，牵头中国国际收支统计体系建设、数据编制与发布等。2013年-2018年担任国际货币基金组织国际收支统计委员会委员。
摘要：
国际收支统计采用国际通行标准，用于衡量一经济体涉外经济发展和跨境资本流动状况；是四大宏观经济统计中，唯一的对外部门统计。本讲座主要涵盖三方面内容：一是国际收支统计原理及构成，侧重介绍全球通行的国际收支统计标准及最新发展；二是我国国际收支统计实践，历经40年发展已形成中国特色国际收支统计之路，并分享对部分国际收支议题的理解；三是我国国际收支中长期演变，涉及我国国际收支货物贸易、服务贸易、跨境双向投资以及对外金融资产和负债状况。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：薏米
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田