北大经院工作坊第882场
community empowerment and health promotion
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人：lu gram（senior research fellow at university college london）
主持老师：（北大全健院）吕蓓妮
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、袁野、kevin devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、黄成、孙宇、潘聿航、林淑君、林昊翔、蒋少翔、杨佳楠
时间：2024年5月16日（周四）10:00-11:30
地点:北京大学科技园a座403室
主讲人简介：
dr lu gram is a global health academic with over 14 years of experience leading research in low- and middle-income settings. he is a sir henry wellcome fellow at university college london, united kingdom. he is a specialist in preventing violence against women, promoting women and communities' empowerment, and addressing the impacts of racism, discrimination, and xenophobia on poor health. his research focuses particularly on identifying and leveraging drivers of community action for health and social change. he has published 49 peer-reviewed publications in high-impact journals such as world development, social science and medicine, and lancet, with 2269 citations, and an h-index of 23 on google scholar. dr gram has strong relationships with government, third sector, and major international organizations, such as world health organization, built over years of collaboration.
摘要：
global health and development projects are often designed and led by experts with insufficient knowledge of or connection to local contexts. this can result in interventions that do not work, because they poorly match the needs of local people, clash with local culture, or are unaffordable to local people. community empowerment takes as a starting point the idea that ordinary people are experts in their own lives and ought to be involved in decisions about interventions targeting their own health. in this talk, dr gram will provide overview of his own and colleagues’ research at the institute for global health, university college london, on the design and evaluation of community empowerment interventions in south asia and sub-saharan africa, which have been proven highly cost-effective in reducing neonatal mortality in high-mortality settings. he will reflect upon the implications of these findings for theories of behaviour change, particularly theories of collective action to provide non-excludable goods.
第172次北大赛瑟（ccissr）双周讨论会
保险公司的防灾防损与风险管理
主讲人：林金穗（富邦产物保险股份有限公司顾问）
主持人：朱南军（北京大学经济学院教授）
时间：2024年5月16日（周四）10：10-12：00
地点：北京大学第二教学楼507教室
主讲人简介：
林金穗，化学工程系毕业、经营管理硕士，富邦产物保险股份有限公司企业保险板块（非车险）负责人、审计长、风控长、防灾防损负责人，财险经历超过38年，曾任台湾风险管理学会损害防阻委员会主任委员、国际纵火调查人协会台湾分会理事、现任财团法人安全卫生技术发展中心董事、台湾公共安全专家咨询会委员、光鼎电子独立董事。
2000年引进各领域专业技师加入富邦损害防阻部（防灾防损）并结合产官学研精进技能且致力于研发各种风险评估模型（如地震、台风、火灾、工程等）大幅提升相关核保、再保、理赔等专业技术，在海峡两岸的保险业建立良好的防灾防损专业形象。
2003年因带领富邦损害防阻团队担任高科技厂建厂顾问而获选为「亚洲风险管理经理人」。
2005年因研发地震风险评估系统而获得亚洲「innovation of the year 2005」。
2010年引进保护层分析（layer of protection analysis)将保险业过去专注于消防安全（降低事故严重性）的风险改善建议转变为增加一道独立保护层（降低事故发生的频率），风险改善不仅可行更符合成本效益深受企业保户的认同。
2012年负责富邦产险企业保险经营，更组保险事故应变团队，从事故侦测、通报、应变、灾因分析（含风险改善策略）、损失预估、设备抢救、灾后复原等，所研讨的事故案例对内提升核保对外定期举办损害防阻研讨会（差异化营销），目的是希望把保险机制由过去事后的损失补偿转化成事前的损失预防。
摘要：
本次演讲首先将从过去三十年来保险业丧失偿付能力的原因出发，浅谈主要风险的因素与权重，并分享富邦产险的风险管理机制；第二部分将以保险业经营致胜之道来检视防灾防损的相关作为，其关键在于如何招募、培训、育留保险业所需要的关键人才。
主办单位：
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系
北大经院工作坊第883场
wealth redistribution and population growth in china
经济史工作坊
主讲人：谢斌（暨南大学经济与社会研究院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠、mark hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
时间：2024年5月16日（周四）12：00-13：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
bin xie is currently an assistant professor at the institute for economic and social research, jinan university. his research interests span labor economics, economic history, and development economics. he has published works in journal of policy analysis and management, southern economic journal, and 《经济学（季刊）》.
摘要：
china's land reform initiated since the late 1940s aimed to equitably redistribute land to peasants. leveraging the gradual rollout and the varying intensity of the reform, we empirically examine the impact of wealth redistribution on fertility in rural china. our county-level analysis reveals that the reform led to a 4.5% increase in the annual number of new births on average, with a stronger impact observed in counties with a higher intensity of the reform. we further conduct the individual-level analysis to shed light on the mechanism driving the observed increase in fertility following wealth redistribution. the results reveal that the rise in fertility rate after the land reform was not limited to poor peasants; it also extended to middle peasants whose wealth remained relatively stable. this finding suggests that the fertility effect of wealth redistribution is not purely driven by changes in individual wealth but also by the perceived inequality level within the community.
北大经院工作坊第884场
新质生产力的内涵探析
政治经济学工作坊
主讲人：唐琦（北京大学医学人文学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）张辉、方敏
时间：2024年5月16日（周四）15：00-17：00
地点：北京大学文史楼114教室
主讲人简介：
唐琦，经济学博士，北京大学医学人文学院助理教授，硕士生导师、博士后导师。于《经济研究》《经济科学》《经济学动态》《政治经济学评论》等期刊发表十余篇论文，多篇为《新华文摘》《人大复印报刊资料》转载。曾获北京大学经济学院“百年菁才”优秀毕业生、北京大学优秀科研奖、北京大学青年岗位能手等荣誉。
摘要：
新时代新征程，加快形成新质生产力是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的必然选择，具有奠定发展基础的重大意义。习近平总书记强调，“新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态。它由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生，以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的跃升为基本内涵，以全要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志，特点是创新，关键在质优，本质是先进生产力”。因此，“新质生产力”理论的产生顺应了高质量发展的时代要求，其“新”表现为新的生产要素和新的要素结合方式，其“质”体现为高质的产业基础和发展动能，二者引发生产方式的更新和发展效果的质变。本次讲座将结合发展新质生产力的时代背景、实践路径、重点方向深入探析新质生产力的科学内涵。
北大经院工作坊第885场
the uk graduate boom and occupational polarisation
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：金文超（英国萨塞克斯大学）
主持老师：（北大经院）刘冲
参与老师：
（北大经院）吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2024年5月16日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园132教室
主讲人简介：
金文超，英国萨塞克斯大学（sussex）商学院经济系助理教授。她于 2022 年从伦敦大学学院（ucl）获得博士学位。在此之前，她就职于英国财政研究所（institute for fiscal studies），致力于政策相关的经济学研究。她的研究兴趣包括劳动经济学和应用微观经济学，研究成果发表于review of economic studies, economic journal等知名期刊。个人九游会平台主页：https://sites.google.com/view/wenchao-jin
摘要：
many developed countries have seen employment shifting away from middle-paying occupations towards both higher and lower paid ones. this polarisation phenomenon is often explained by routine biased technical change (rbtc). this paper offers a complementary explanation that emphasises the increasing supply of skills and endogenous adoption of routine-biased technology. i develop an estimate an equilibrium model that can explain all major trends about occupations in the uk, including the absence of wage polarisation and lack of occupational downgrading within graduates. the counterfactual analysis suggests that the shift in skills supply alone can explain over half of the employment shifts.
北大经院工作坊第886场
reciprocity and state capacity: evidence from a national pollution control campaign in china
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：张明昂（中央财经大学财政税务学院副教授）
时间：2024年5月17日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室
主讲人简介：
张明昂，中央财经大学财政税务学院副教授、硕士生导师。主要研究领域为公共经济学、劳动经济学，在journal of environmental economics and management、economics of transition and institutional change、energy economics、china & world economy、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《中国工业经济》等期刊发表多篇论文，主持国家自然科学基金青年项目1项。担任《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、economics of transition and institutional change、china economic review、emerging markets finance & trade、journal of asian economics等期刊匿名审稿人。
摘要：
this paper tests the social contract view of the state within the realm of pollution control. using a unique dataset on firm-level emission records from china, we find that firms with prior local government subsidies achieved greater emission reductions after a national pollution control campaign, likely through output cuts and clean technology adoption. such reductions, which we interpret as driven by reciprocity between firms and governments, were more pronounced for firms with a greater desire to reciprocate the government and paid off as higher future government subsidies. we find little support for other mechanisms, such as reduced financial constraints, political connections, and forced reductions. in aggregate, regions that previously granted more subsidies to firms witnessed greater reductions in pollution concentrations.
北大经院工作坊第887场
bootstrap massive and chaotic data
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：nan zou（lecturer in statistics, school of mathematical and physical science, macquarie university）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、王法、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭、
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2024年5月17日（周五）10:00-11:30
形式：zoom会议
会议号：881 5708 6216
密码：990080
主讲人简介：
dr nan zou is a lecturer in statistics, school of mathematical and physical science, macquarie university. his research interests lie in empirical process, time series analysis, extreme value theory, resampling-type method, statistical inference of massive datasets and statistical inference of dynamical systems. dr nan zou has published papers in annals of statistics, econometrics and statistics, journal of multivariate analysis, journal of nonparametric statistics and statistics and probability letters.
摘要：
this talk contains two parts. its first part investigates the “bag of little bootstraps”, a bootstrap designed for massive data. in classic statistical inference, the bootstrap stands out as a simple, powerful, and data-driven technique. however, when coping with massive data sets, which are increasingly prevalent these days, the bootstrap can be computationally infeasible. to speed up the bootstrap for massive data sets, the bag of little bootstraps was invented in 2014. despite its considerable popularity, little is known about the bag of little bootstraps’s theoretical properties, including reliability. indeed, our preliminary results have already raised questions on the applicability of the bag of little bootstraps under a simple but important setting. this part will first introduce the bag of little bootstraps procedure and then investigate its theoretical applicability. specifically, for this applicability, this part will present a counterexample for the claimed sufficient condition in the literature and will, as a remedy, provide a (hopefully) correct, generic sufficient condition. this part is joint with l. peng, p. bertail, d. politis, h. shang, and s. volgushev.
this talk’s second part introduces the bootstrap for chaotic dynamical systems. after its establishment in the late 19th century through the efforts of poincaré and lyapunov, the theory of dynamical systems was applied to study processes that change over time. despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems can exhibit incomprehensibly chaotic behaviors and seemingly random patterns. consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model, in which the unknown parameters must be estimated using statistical methods. to measure the uncertainty of such estimation, we develop a bootstrap method and establish its consistency and second-order efficiency via continuous edgeworth expansions. this part is joint with k. fernando.
北大经院工作坊第888场
the green costs of debt overhang: evidence from local government debt restructuring
（债务悬挑的绿色成本——来自地方政府债务重组的证据）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：彭俞超（中央财经大学金融学院）
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：2024年5月17日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园246教室
主讲人简介：
彭俞超，中央财经大学金融学院教授、博士生导师、副院长，青年龙马学者，全国金融青联委员，入选国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才，兼任中央财经大学丝路金融研究中心主任。国家级线下本科一流课程主持人，教育部首批课程思政教学名师及团队、第二批全国高校黄大年式教师团队核心成员。主要研究方向为中国宏观经济、银行与公司金融。近年来，在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《金融研究》、《中国社会科学（英文版）》、journal of development economics、journal of money, credit and banking、journal of economic behavior & organization、journal of corporate finance等国内外重要期刊发表论文80余篇，主持国家自然科学基金面上项目和青年项目、北京市社科规划项目，厦门市第十二次社会科学优秀成果二等奖，普华永道pwc3535优秀论文奖等。多项咨政报告获中央领导人批示或部委采纳。
摘要：
outstanding public debts constrain a government's ability to address climate and environmental issues. we investigate the green impact of debt overhang using china's local government debt restructuring in 2015. cities with previously heavier debt burdens subsequently experience larger improvements in air quality after debt restructuring. we also find larger increases in environmental penalties and polluting firms obtaining more green patents. within a city, the impact is more pronounced in areas with higher initial pollution. alternative factors such as environmental inspection movements and other city-level characteristics cannot fully explain our results. our paper offers novel supporting evidence for "debt-for-climate/nature" swap arrangements.
北大经院学术午餐会第193期
financial knowledge and financial policy preferences: evidence from entrepreneurs in china
主讲人：肖潇（北京大学光华管理学院助理教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2024年5月17日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点： 北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
肖潇，北京大学光华管理学院助理教授。她先后于北京大学光华管理学院、国家发展研究院和威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校取得学士、硕士和博士学位，研究领域包括资本市场监管、会计信息披露、金融知识对个体及企业的影响、公司财务以及审计等，研究成果发表于《会计研究》《经济学报》《金融学季刊》和auditing: a journal of practice and theory、journal of financial markets、economics letters、sociological science等国内外知名学术期刊。
摘要：
financial inclusion programs launched by international organizations have emphasized the importance of financial knowledge for the success of enterprises. yet empirical evidence on the role of financial knowledge in a business environment is limited, which is primarily due to data availability. taking advantage of a survey covering a group of entrepreneurs of small businesses in china, we show that better financially literate entrepreneurs prefer to hold more cash and maintain lower leverages. these entrepreneurs also exhibit a stronger (weaker) preference for financing through retained earnings and external financing sources (owners’ own funds). our results remain unchanged after controlling for entrepreneurs’ risk preference, time preference and optimism toward future performance. the results of tests using transaction data indicate that enterprises with better financially literate entrepreneurs make higher sales and have lower reduction in average sales during the covid-19 pandemic. overall, we provide novel evidence on the role of financial literacy in shaping entrepreneurs’ financial policy preferences.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：薏米
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田